It's not like I didn't call Musk crazy before, but I think now he is truly, really nuts. Like, clinically insane. This isn't about the Dragon, of course, but about the whole thing. Very curious to see how it ends and if he is as untouchable as he clearly thinks he is.
Despite my antipathy to Elon, I hope he will take down a peg first a true untouchable Demented Don, who usurped legislative branch and is now eyeing judicial. USA turning autocratic is way scarier than any tehnobro megacorp.
Yeah, pretty sure that they'll just nationalize SpaceX to prevent it from happening, but not gonna lie, it'd be funny to see how USA government would have to crawl back to Russia for ISS resupply.
Yes 100% agree. Just wanted to point out that this is not a normal commercial relationship.
NASA / DOD needs SpaceX (for now) and if Musk thinks he can just stop working with / for them and continue his rocket business as usual, he's getting really delusional.
The obvious next step is to revoke FAA authorization for further Starship tests. Maybe take other steps to prevent "humanity from becoming multi-planetary" and maximally delay any future Mars missions.
Does ULA have a reusable rocket? They could probably use some government money to develop one.
Blue Origin has New Glenn which is partly reusable but has only flown once and did not land. Also they have serious organization challenges so they are a very distant second to Spacex. In terms of reuse and also cadence.
The best thing that could happen is if Musk left Tesla and SpaceX and let them continue under adult supervision.
It was obvious from the beginning, that economical miracle of SpaceX is based on government subsidies. Without USA pumping money in every Musk project, his hi-tech businesses are dead.
SpaceX, subsidies? No. Government contracts? Yes. Tesla subsidies, also yes.
SpaceX has actually made space cheap enough for a lot of other stuff to make sense, but without competition the profits are as big as Musk needs for R&D for his hobby of LARPing sci-fi he clearly hasn't read deeply (in this case Red Mars; in the cases of Neuralink and the SpaceX drone ships, The Culture).
NASA does not directly subsidise launches as far as I can telk.
What NASA does do is contract launch services through competitive tenders.
SpaceX only opened this door by arguing they were cheaper, and only kept the door open by then actually delivering, unlike all the other big players in the US.
Unfortunately for everyone who likes space stuff but not Musk personally (e.g. me), SpaceX is currently a lot better than everyone else — at least, better than everyone outside China, they're harder to speak of confidently.
It's not like I didn't call Musk crazy before, but I think now he is truly, really nuts. Like, clinically insane. This isn't about the Dragon, of course, but about the whole thing. Very curious to see how it ends and if he is as untouchable as he clearly thinks he is.
Despite my antipathy to Elon, I hope he will take down a peg first a true untouchable Demented Don, who usurped legislative branch and is now eyeing judicial. USA turning autocratic is way scarier than any tehnobro megacorp.
There's approximately zero percent chance of this actually happening.
Yeah, pretty sure that they'll just nationalize SpaceX to prevent it from happening, but not gonna lie, it'd be funny to see how USA government would have to crawl back to Russia for ISS resupply.
They could always ask the ESA to revive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated_Transfer_Vehicle , but human access might be more of a problem.
They don’t need ESA for unmanned supplies:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cygnus_(spacecraft)
I dunno, if Musk chickens out I'd expect Trump to try to punish him by cancelling it anyway.
I don't see Trump caring what happens to the ISS, up to and including uncontrolled re-entry.
Should call his bluff and move to accelerate deorbiting of the ISS. Can always nationalize SpaceX for national security if needed.
Musk calls for deorbiting ISS “as soon as possible” - https://spacenews.com/musk-calls-for-deorbiting-iss-as-soon-... - February 20th, 2025
They're already selling Dragon flights to private citizens and organizations. They'll keep sending Isaacman up again if he'll pay for it.
They might not do the extra stuff NASA wants anymore, but they're currently the only US option to get astronauts to space.
SpaceX is dead without NASA and government contracts.
Starlink is Tesla all over again - projections of profitability going exponential, only to be met with reality some years later.
SpaceX will get nationalized under the Defense Production Act long before it's allowed to die.
Yes 100% agree. Just wanted to point out that this is not a normal commercial relationship.
NASA / DOD needs SpaceX (for now) and if Musk thinks he can just stop working with / for them and continue his rocket business as usual, he's getting really delusional.
They did it to Iridium when it went bankrupt. DOD basically got it running again with a bunch of money.
> They might not do the extra stuff NASA wants anymore, but they're currently the only US option to get astronauts to space.
Yes, but does Trump care?
I bought DXYZ during the dip from all this. I feel the same way.
do not underestimate the ego (and resultant stupidity) of either musk or trump
When does Trump nationalize SpaceX?
The obvious next step is to revoke FAA authorization for further Starship tests. Maybe take other steps to prevent "humanity from becoming multi-planetary" and maximally delay any future Mars missions.
Does ULA have a reusable rocket? They could probably use some government money to develop one.
ULA does not and will not for ages.
Blue Origin has New Glenn which is partly reusable but has only flown once and did not land. Also they have serious organization challenges so they are a very distant second to Spacex. In terms of reuse and also cadence.
The best thing that could happen is if Musk left Tesla and SpaceX and let them continue under adult supervision.
SpaceX might have to stop launching DOD missions. Maybe The administration could deport Musk.
It was obvious from the beginning, that economical miracle of SpaceX is based on government subsidies. Without USA pumping money in every Musk project, his hi-tech businesses are dead.
SpaceX, subsidies? No. Government contracts? Yes. Tesla subsidies, also yes.
SpaceX has actually made space cheap enough for a lot of other stuff to make sense, but without competition the profits are as big as Musk needs for R&D for his hobby of LARPing sci-fi he clearly hasn't read deeply (in this case Red Mars; in the cases of Neuralink and the SpaceX drone ships, The Culture).
Bezos and the others must be happy
I would say they are taking lessons from this childish spat.
Black swan: ESA offers to buy (from) SpaceX?
https://archive.is/tVeB7
Any hopes of refunding NASA with the recouped SpaceX subsidies in future?
What subsidies?
NASA does not directly subsidise launches as far as I can telk.
What NASA does do is contract launch services through competitive tenders.
SpaceX only opened this door by arguing they were cheaper, and only kept the door open by then actually delivering, unlike all the other big players in the US.
Unfortunately for everyone who likes space stuff but not Musk personally (e.g. me), SpaceX is currently a lot better than everyone else — at least, better than everyone outside China, they're harder to speak of confidently.
[dead]
Elon is making both parties enemy. One party is trying to sabotage his car company by destroying cars and another one will destroy rocket company.
"one party" isn't trying to do shit about his car company. That's entirely grass roots.